侠客棋牌[导读]2018年8月25日下午,文化纵横“一期一会”主题沙龙在北京新华书店总店举办,本次活动由《文化纵横》杂志社、南都公益基金会《南都观察》主办,新华书店网上商城协办和支持。沙龙主讲人北京大学政府管理学院副教授段德敏先生,以“新政治家的登场——从特朗普谈起”为题,对特朗普时代的中美关系等问题进行解读。《文化纵横》杂志社社长兼总编杨平先生作为评议人出席,现场参与人数众多,气氛热烈,不仅有《文化纵横》的忠实读者,也有关注中美关系、国际政治的各行业人士。本文为本次活动纪要。特此编发,以飨读者。

 

段德敏:特朗普时代的强人政治

侠客棋牌ZHONGSUOZHOUZHI,MEIGUODELIANGDANGZHENGZHISHIZHONGCHUZAILIANGGEBUTONGDEZHENGDANG、LIANGGEBUTONGZHENGZHIPAIBIEHUXIANGTAOLUN、HUXIANGDOUZHENG、HUXIANGPINGHENGDETAISHIXIA,ZAIZHEIYANGDEZHENGZHIGEJUXIA,XIANYOUCHAOYUEXINGDELILIANGCUNZAI。DUANLAOSHIRENWEI,TELANGPUMINGQUEDIBIAOBANGFANTIZHI、FANJINGYING,DUILIANGDANGZHENGZHIDEYOUXIBIAOXIANCHUCHAOYUEXING——HETIZHIDUIKANG,BUYONGZAIHUNEIXIEFUXIUZHENGKEMENDEDIEDIEBUXIU,SHENZHIKEYIZAIMOUZHONGCHENGDUSHANGTIAOZHANMEIGUOZHENGZHITIZHIZHONGGENSHENDIGUDEQUANLIFENLIHEZHIHENGJIZHI。YINCILIJIEMEIGUOTELANGPUSHIDAIDEQUANLIYUZHENGZHI,BUNENGJINJINCONGMINZHUDANGHEGONGHEDANGLIANGDANGZHIZHENGHUOZUOYOUZHIZHENGZHONGXUNZHAOXIANSUO。

侠客棋牌DUANLAOSHIYINYONGMEIGUOQIANZONGTONGNIKESONGDEHUA“CHENMODEDADUOSHU”(silent majority),ZHICHUTELANGPUYUTIZHIHEJINGYINGDUIKANGDEDIQILAIZIYUTADUI“CHENMODADUOSHU”(silent majority)DEDAIBIAO。JINGUANZAIZONGTONGXUANJUZHIHOU,HENNANSHUOTELANGPUJIUZHENZHENGDAIBIAOLE“DADUOSHU”,DANZHEIYIXUNIDE“CHENMODADUOSHU”RENGRANSHIFENQIANGYOULI:ZAI“CHENMODADUOSHU”DEHUAYUZHONG,LIANGDANGDEDUIHUAHEZHENGBIANDOUCHENGLEJINGYINGMENDEYINMOU,ERNEIXIE“CHENMODADUOSHU”CAISHIZHENZHENGDERENMINZHUTI,TAMENDESHENGYINSHIWEIYIZHENGQUEDE,YESHIZHENZHENGYINGGAIBEITINGDAO、QUEYINZHONGZHONGYUANYINBEIYANGAILEDE。TELANGPUWANQUANLAIZITIZHIWAI,CHENGGONGDIJIANGZHEIYI“LIESHI”ZHUANBIANWEI“YOUSHI”YINWEILAIZITIZHIWAI,SUOYITAGENGNENGTIRENPUTONGMEIGUORENDELIYISUQIUHEJIAZHIQUXIANG,ERTELANGPUKANSICHENGGONGDESHANGYEBEIJINGYESHITAKEYISHUOZIJIYOUNENGLIDAILINGMEIGUOREN“RANGMEIGUOZHONGXINQIANGDAQILAI”(“Make America Great Again”)。ZHEIYIZHUANBIANBUJINXIAOJIELEGONGGONGTAOLUNDEZHONGYAOXING,ERQIEWEIZHENGZHIXUANZEFUYULEEWAIDEDAODESECAI——YIBIANSHIDAODESHANGZISIZILI、XIEEDEJINGYING,LINGYIBIANZESHIMEIGUOCHUANTONGJINGSHENHEWENMINGDECHENGZAIZHE。

侠客棋牌HUIGUXIFANGZHENGZHISHI,KEYIFAXIAN,ZHENZHENGDEZHENGZHIQIANGRENDOUSHIQIYUANYUMINZHONGDEZHICHI,ERFEIWULIZHENGFU。ERCONGGENBENSHANGSHUO,ZHENGZHIQIANGRENSHIXIANDAISHEHUIDEXIANXIANG。DUANLAOSHIYICICHANSHITELANGPU“QIANGREN”XINGXIANGDESHEHUIBEIJING:YIFANGMIAN,JINRIDEMEIGUOZAOYIJINFEIXIBI,ZAIGUOJIWUTAISHANGBANYANZHEJUZUQINGZHONGDEJIAOSE,ZAIWAIJIAOHEGUOFANGFANGMIANFUZHUYAOZERENDEZONGTONGYEHUODEBIYIQIANDADEDUODEQUANLI;LINGYIFANGMIAN,YUCIXIANGGUAN,MEIGUOGUONEIDESHEHUIGOUCHENGYERIYIFUZA,FENLIEDECHENGDUYERIYIJIAJU。DANGRENMENFAXIANXIANGHUZHIJIANNANYIJIUSHANGSHUWENTIDACHENGQIMADEGONGSHISHI,TAMENZIRANHUIXIWANGCHUXIANYIGEXUANZHIYUSHEHUIZHISHANGDEZUIGAOQUANLI,QIDAIZHEIGEQUANLINENGJITAMENDAILAIMOUZHONGQUANLIDESHENZHANG、LIYIDESHIXIANHUORENTONGFANGMIANDEKENDING。

DUANLAOSHIJINERTIXING,TELANGPUZAIMEIGUODEJUEQIDUIHENDUOREN、TEBIESHITADEZHONGSHIZHICHIZHELAISHUO,XIANGZHENGZHEYIZHONGXINDEXIWANGHEJIEJUEWENTIDEXINCHULU。BIAOMIANSHANGKAN,ZHEIHENYOUDAOLI,SUOWEIBUPOBULI,JIRANTIZHIYIJINGWUFAJIEJUERENMENGUANXINDEZHUDUOWENTI,SHENZHICHENGWEIWENTIBENSHEN,NEIMECONGTIZHIWAIXUNZHAONENGGOUJIEJUEWENTIDERENBINGWUBUKE。DANCONGZHIDUBENSHENDEJIAODUKAN,ZHEIYIXIANXIANGQISHIDAIYOUYIXIEJUEWANGDETEZHENG,YINWEITAZHIJIEBAOLULEXIANYOUTIZHIDEJUXIANXING,DANYOUWEINENGTIGONGYIZHONGZHANGQIYOUXIAODEXINDEZHIDULUJING。

侠客棋牌DUANLAOSHIQIANGDIAO,RUGUOSHUOTELANGPUSHANGTAIDUINEIXIANSHICHUMEIGUOSHEHUI“XIANG‘CHUANTONGJINGSHENHEJIAZHIGUAN’DEHUIGUI”,DUIWAIZEBANSUIZHEDUIDIRENYUPENGYOUDEZHONGXINDINGYI。TEBIESHIZAIDUIWAIJINGJIGUANXIZHONG,CONG《KUATAIPINGYANGHUOBANGUANXIXIEDING》(TPP)DAO《BEIMEIZIYOUMAOYIXIEDING》(NAFTA),DAOMEIGUOYUZHONGGUO、OUZHOUDEJINGMAOWANGLAI,TELANGPUZHENGFUDOUSHITUDUIZHIJIAYIZHONGXINSHENSHI,GAITUICHUDETUICHU,GAIZHONGXINTANPANDEZHONGXINTANPAN。TELANGPUXUYAOZAITADEZHONGSHIZHICHIZHEMIANQIANBIAOXIANCHUQIESHIWEIHUMEIGUORENZISHENLIYIDEQIANGYINGXINGXIANG,CONGERYUCHUANTONGDEZHENGZHIJINGYING、QUANQIUZHUYIZHEMENQUBIEKAILAI。YIFANGMIAN,TABIAOXIANDEGENG“WUSHI”,DUIGUOJISHEHUIZHONGDERENQUANWENTIBUXIANGYIQIANDEMEIGUOZONGTONGNEIYANGGUANZHU;DANLINGYIFANGMIAN,TADUIGUOJIZHIXUDEMIESHIYUTIAOZHANYEWEIGUOJISHEHUIDAILEHENDADEFENGXIAN。

侠客棋牌ZAIYANJIANGZUIHOU,DUANLAOSHIZHONGSHEN,DAZHONGZHISUOYIZAIHENDUOSHIHOUDUITELANGPUSHIDAIDEMEIGUOZHENGZHIGANDAOKUNHUO、BUJIE,ZHUYAOSHIYINWEIWOMENDUI“MEIGUO”BENSHENFUYULETAIDUOXIANRUZHIJIAN,BAOKUODUITASUODAIBIAODEWENMING、ZHIDUDEXIANGXIANG。QUANQIUHUASHIDAIJIRENMENZAOCHENGDECHONGJISHIQUANFANGWEIDE,TAJIDAILAIJUDADEBIANLI,YEHUIWUCHABIEDIDAILAIJUDADEBUQUEDINGXING,YIZHIYUXIANGMEIGUOZHEIYANGGAODUFADADESHEHUIZHONGYEYOUHENDAYIPIRENGANDAOSHENSHENDECUOZHE。YINCIZAIJIESHITELANGPUSHIDAIDEMEIGUOZHENGZHISHI,WOMENJIYAOCONGMEIGUOSHEHUIBENSHENDEBIANHUARUSHOU,YEYINGGAILIJIEZHENGZHIBENSHENDE“JIANGOU”ZUOYONG。TELANGPUDE“QIANGREN”ZHENGZHIYOUMEIGUOSHEHUINEIBUBIANHUADEYUANYOU,ZHEIYIQIANGRENZHENGZHIDECHUXIANYEZAIQIAOWUSHENGXIDIDUIMEIGUOZHEIYIZHENGZHIGONGTONGTIBENSHENCHANSHENGYINGXIANG。

 

杨平:“强人政治”根本源自于全球资本流动

侠客棋牌ZAIDUANLAOSHICONGGUOJIZHENGZHIJIAODUJIEDU“TELANGPUXIANXIANG”HOU,《WENHUAZONGHENG》ZAZHISHESHEZHANGYANGPINGJINYIBUBUCHONGTADUICIWENTIDESIKAO。YANGPINGZONGBIANRENWEI,CHUANTONGSHEHUIZIBENZIYOULIUDONGSHOUDAOFENGJIANSHEHUIZHIYUE,ZAIJISHINIANQIANSHOUDAOMINZUGUOJIA、YISHIXINGTAIDEZHIYUE,RUJINZIBENZAIQUANQIUDEPEIZHIRIYIBAITUODIYU、GUOJIAHAIYOUQITAGEZHONGLILIANGDESHUFU,KEYIZIYOUDIZAIQUANQIUZHIPEI。ZIBENKEYIZAIQUANQIUZIYOUPEIZHIDESHIDAIDAOLAI,SHIDEZHEIGESHIDAICHANSHENGLEXUDUODEXINTEDIAN,QUANQIUHUASHIQIZHONGZHIYI。

 

根据“钟摆效应”,在30-40年的周期内,自由化、效益最大化,要求减税,给企业松绑等现象层出不穷,从上个世纪80年代连带中国改革开放一起形成的新自由主义浪潮随着2008年金融危机爆发而走向瓶颈。资本运动到了肆无忌惮的时候,会对社会造成极大伤害。为了更方便金融资本盈利,原本只提供储蓄服务的银行业开始深入到投资领域,各类金融衍生品迭出,产业由实业转向金融、由一国转向全球的趋势愈演愈烈。杨总编以此指出,在当前中美贸易博弈的大环境下,资本全球分布的全球化带来的反向破坏性显现,聚集了大量劳动密集型产业的中国引起美国产业倒逼。另一方面,资本的流动遏制了劳工运动的兴起,底层劳动人民把对资本家的仇恨转移成对外来墨西哥人的仇恨,转移成对亚洲人的仇恨,转移成抢他饭碗人的仇恨,这是资本主义常见不鲜的现象——这也是大众认识并理解“特朗普现象”的另一个视角。

ZAIYANGZONGBIANKANLAI,“TELANGPUXIANXIANG”YEKEKANZUO“NIQUANQIUHUA”DEBIAOXIAN。TELANGPUYIFANGMIANGUANBISHICHANG,YIFANGMIANJIANSHUI,ZAIMINCUIMINYIYUZIBENLIYIZHIJIANXUNQIUPINGHENG,ZHEISHEJIDAOZHENGZHILINGXIUDEXIANSHICUNZAIYUMINZHUZHENGZHIDEZHIDUCUNZAIRUHEHUYIDEWENTI。MINZHUZHENGZHIZHIDUKENDINGHUIZHIYUEZHENGZHILINGXIUDEXINGWEIXUANZE,DANSHIZHENGZHILINGXIUFANGUOLAIKEYICAOZONGMINZHU,DANGBUKEKONGDESHEHUIXIANXIANGFASHENGSHI,SHEHUIZHIDUXUYAOQIANGRENDEZHICHENG。

 

提问环节

ZAITIWENHUANJIE,YOUDUZHEWENDAO:“TUERQI、ELUOSIYIJIQITAGUOJIAQIANGRENZHENGZHIYUMEIGUOXIANGBIYOUSHENMEQUBIE?”

侠客棋牌DUANDEMINLAOSHIRENWEI,TELANGPUZHENGQUANHENNANSHUOSHIYIGEQIANGRENZHENGZHI。TELANGPUDE“QIANGRENZHENGZHI”JINJIUMEIGUOTIZHIERYAN——MEIGUOZHENGGETIZHIJIUSHIWEILEBIMIANQIANGRENZHENGZHI。TELANGPUXIANXIANGZUOWEIYIZHONGDUIXIANSHIDEHUIYING,CUNZAICHONGPOCHUANTONGTIZHIDEKENENGXING。GEGUOYOUQIZISHENDELISHI,ELUOSISHIZHONGCUNZAIFEICHANGQIANGDADE、JUTIGERENZHENGZHIJIADEQUANWEI,BINGQIEQISHEHUIDUIZHEIYIQUANWEIYOUGAORENTONGDU。YIDANMEIGUOCHUXIANPUJINSHIRENWU,YIDINGHUIFASHENGZHANGSHIDUANDEBIANHUA,SUIZHIYINGXIANGZHENGGESHEHUIZHONGRENMENDEGUANNIAN、RENMENDEQINGGAN、RENYURENZHIJIANDEGUANXI。

YANGPINGZONGBIANJIZECONGZIBENYUNZUODESHIJIAOTICHU,DALIANGDEGUATOUKONGZHIZHENGGEELUOSIDEGUOMINJINGJIMINGMAI,PUJINGDECUNZAIYOUQIZIBENGEJUDEKEGUANJICHU。ERTUERQIDEWENTIZAIYUYISILANZONGJIAO,TUERQIZISHANGSHIJI30NIANDAIGAIGE,TONGGUOXIANDAIHUAZHENGZHISHANGTAICHENGWEIYIGEZHUNFADAGUOJIA。LENGZHANZHIHOU,LIUDONGDEZIBENYUBUDUANJIAJUDEPINFUFENHUA,SHIZHEIXIEYISILANDIQUJIHUIDADAJIANSHAO,YOUQISHI2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIHOU,XIANGCHUANTONGHUIGUIDELANGCHAOXIJUANQUANQIU,SUOCHANSHENGDEJIDUANXIAOYINGJIUSHIYISILANJIDUANZHUYI、KONGBUZHUYI。QINEIBUZONGJIAOJIDUANZHUYIHUIGUI,YIJIYIAIERDUOANWEIDAIBIAODEQIANGRENZHENGZHIHUIGUI,YESHIZHEIYISICHAOSUODAILAIDEBIANHUA。

 

还有读者提问:“特朗普上台后,美国经济并没有像之前所预测的那样萧条,不降反升,而中国的生产效率却在降低,在这种经济形势下,需要如何应对?”

YANGPINGZONGBIANJIHUIYINGDAO,MEIGUOMUQIANZHENGCHUYUJINGJIXIAXINGZHUJIANFUSUDAOGAOZENGZHANGDEJIEDUAN,ZHEIYUAOBAMAZHENGFUJINGJIGONGZUOMIBUKEFEN,BUKEYIGAIERGUIWEITELANGPUBENRENDEZHIZHENGZUOWEI。ZHONGGUOMUQIANZECHUZAIJIANNANDECHANYESHENGJIJIEDUAN,MIANLINZHANGQIDEJINGJITIAOZHAN,HUIGURENLEILISHI,CONGWEIYOUGUORUZHONGGUOZHEIBANJINGJITILIANG、RENKOUJISHUGUOJIAWANCHENGCONGXIAXIANGSHANGDECHANYEZHUANXING,JIAZHILAOZIMAODUNHEMINZUWENTIDECUNZAI,SHIBIYIWEIZHEZHEIJIANGSHIYIGEJIANXINDEGUOCHENG,YINCIXUYAOJINSHENMIANDUI,YISHIWEIJIAN。

CIWAI,DUZHEYUZHUJIANGJIABINJIUJINQIMEIGUOZHENGZHIZOUSHI、ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANDUIQUANQIUZHIXUDEYINGXIANGDENGYITI,JINXINGLESHENRUDEHUDONGHEJIAOLIU。ZAICIYEGANXIEDAOCHANGTINGZHONGMENDEZHICHI,BAOZHENGLEHUODONGDEYUANMANJINXING。