[导读]2018年5月5日下午两点半,文化纵横“一期一会”主题沙龙在北京新华书店总店举办,本次活动由《文化纵横》杂志社主办、新华书店总店-新华互联电子商务有限责任公司协办、南都公益基金会《南都观察》支持。此次沙龙邀请了中国人民大学哲学院教授王宇洁、国际关系学院国际战略与安全研究中心主任达巍,以“新冷战的幽灵——从‘中美贸易战’到‘叙利亚危机’”为题,分别从当代中东困局、中美贸易战的角度对当前世界政治经济变局进行解读。本次活动同时采用网络直播的形式实时分享,参与人数众多,仅预报名人数即超300人次,现场气氛热烈,不仅有《文化纵横》的忠实读者,也有关注世界政治经济议题的各行业人士。

 

 

中美贸易战:“新冷战”的开始?

一、中美关系40

DAWEILAOSHIZAITAOLUNMUQIAN“ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHAN”JUSHIQIAN,HUIGULEZI1978NIANZHONGMEIQIANSHULIANHEGONGBAOQIJIN40NIANLAIDELISHI。ZHICHUZHONGMEI40NIANDELISHIJIEDIANYIWEIZHELIANGGUOGUANXIZHENGZAIJINRUXINDEJIEDUAN,LIANGGUOJIANDEJIBENMAODUNYEHUIFASHENGZHONGYAOBIANHUA。

DUIGUOQU40NIANZHONGMEIGUANXIKUANGJIADEGEJUJICHU,DAWEILAOSHIYONG“NEIWAI/QIANGRUO”LAIXINGRONG。“QIANGRUO”YIWEIZHEZAIGUOQU40NIANLI,JINGUANZHONGGUOZAISHIJIESHANGBUSHIYIGEXIAOGUO,DANSHIXIANGDUIYUMEIGUOYIGEQIANGGUOERYAN,ZHONGGUOSHIZHONGSHIYIGERUOGUO。“NEIWAI”ZHISHUOZEQIANSHEDAOZHEIQIJIANSHIJIETIXIDEYUNXING:MEIGUOZUOWEIXIFANGTIXILIDEZHUDAOZHE、TOUHAOQIANGGUOYINGXIANGSHIJIEJUSHIDEZOUXIANG,ERZHONGGUOYIZHIZHISHENYUCITIXIWAIBUHUOZHEBIANYUAN。

ZHONGMEIZHANLVEDEZHIDINGLIBUKAIYISHANGGEJUJICHU。YINCI,DAWEILAOSHIJINYIBUDUIJIESHILEGUOQUSISHINIANZHONGMEIZHANLVETEDIAN。SHOUXIAN,TAZHICHU,MEIGUODEDUIHUAZHANLVEKECHENGWEI“JIECHU(engagement)ZHANLVE”——TONGGUOJIAOWANG,JIANGZHONGGUOLARUMEIGUOZHUDAODEGUOJITIXI,HUODEZHANLVEYUJINGJILIYIDETONGSHI,SUZAOZHONGGUODEFAZHANFANGXIANG。ZHEIYI“JIECHUZHANLVE”SHIMEIGUOHUODELELIANGXIANGZHONGDALIYI。DIYI,WANQUANNIUZHUANLE70NIANDAIMEIGUOZAILENGZHANZHONGDETUISHI;DIER,QUANQIUHUAJINCHENGZHONG,ZUOWEIQUANQIUZHONGYAODEZIBEN、JISHUSHUCHUGUO,MEIGUOYUSHIJIEZUIDASHICHANGZHONGGUOHUOQULEJUDADEJINGJILIYI。

侠客棋牌FANGUANZHONGGUO,ZHONGGUODEDUIMEIZHANLVEKEGAIKUOWEI“RONGRUZHANLVE”,JITONGGUORONGRUMEIGUOZHUDAODEGUOJITIXISHIXIANXIANDAIHUA,TONGSHIBAOCHITESE。YINCICONGLIANGGUODEZHANLVEFANGSHISHANGKAN,GEZIZHANLVEDEQIANDUANMUBIAOBICIGAODUQIHE,ERBICIDEZUIZHONGMUBIAOQUEGAODUBUTONG,LIANGGUOZAIZHEIZHONG“TONGCHUANGYIMENG”DEGEJUXIABAOCHIZHEXIANGDUIWENDINGDEHUDONGGUANXI。

 

二、当前中美矛盾的变化

侠客棋牌JINRUBENSHIJIYILAI,ZHONGMEIGUANXIDEGEJUSUIZHESHUANGFANGLILIANGDEYANJINYEKAISHICHUXIANXINDEBIANHUA,“JIECHU-RONGRU”KUANGJIAZHUJIANJIEJINLISHIZHONGJU。YIXILIEDEBIANHUAZONGTIKEGUINAWEIYIXIALIANGDIAN:QIYI,ZHONGMEIGUANXICONG“NEIWAIQIANGRUO”BIANCHENG“TIXINEILIANGQIANG”,ZHONGGUOBUZAIJUYUGUOJITIXIDEWAIBUHUOBIANYUAN,ERSHIZHUJIANJINRUSHIJIETIXIBINGRIYIJIEJINSHIJIEWUTAIDEZHONGYANG;QIER,ZHONGGUOMEIYOUANZHAOMEIGUOQIDAIDEFANGXIANGFASHENGBIANHUA,MEIGUOQIDAIDEZHONGGUO,SHIYIGEZHENGZHIGENGDUOYUAN、SHICHANGGENGZIYOU、SHEHUIGENGKAIFANGBINGQIEZAIWAIJIAOSHANGJINGENMEIGUOJIAOBUDEGUOJIA。WEINENGANZHAOMEIGUOYIYUANFAZHANDEZHONGGUO,QUEZAISHIJIEGEJUZHONGZHANJUYUELAIYUEZHONGYAODEHUAYUQUAN,ZHEIWUXINGZHONGCUCHENGLEMEIGUODUIHUAZHANLVEDEZHUANBIAN。

DAWEILAOSHIYEQIANGDIAO,MEIGUODUIHUAZHANLVEDEZHUANBIANBINGBUXIANGKANSHANGQUNEIYANGYICUERJIU。GUANYUZHONGMEIGUANXIDETAOLUNZAILIANGGUOYIZHIBUJUEYUER,CONG2007NIANDE《ZHONGGUOHUANXIANGQU》、2008NIANDE“QIANGDAZHONGGUOFANSHI”DAO2015NIANDEDUIHUAZHANLVEDABIANLUN,DALAOSHIRENWEI,YAOLIQINGDANGQIANZHONGMEIGUANXI,HEXINWENTISHIYAOZHANGWODANGQIANZHONGMEIMAODUNDEBENZHI。TANJIZHONGMEIMAODUN,BUNENGBIMIANJUJIAOYUZHONGMEIJINGMAOMAODUN,ZHEIZHIZHONGSHEJIDAOFUZADEYINSU,BAOKUOMAOYIBUPINGHENG、ZHISHICHANQUANBAOHU、SHICHANGZHUNRU、GAODUANZHIZAOYEYUKEJIJINGZHENGDENG。DANCONGJINGMAOJIAODUJIUKEKANCHU,ZHONGGUOMOSHISHIJISHANGSHIYIGEPANGDADE、FEIXIFANGMOSHIDE、YOUZHENGFUFAHUIHEXINZUOYONGDEJIEGOU,ERYIZHEIZHONGFEI“MEIGUO”DETEZHENGJINRUMEIGUOZHUDAODEGUOJITIXIDANGZHONG,LIANGZHONGMOSHINENGFOUJIANRONGGONGSHENG,RENGSHIYIGESHUANGFANGDOUBIXUMIANDUIDESHENKEYITI。

DUIYU“XINLENGZHAN”DEKANFA,DAWEILAOSHIRENWEI,DANGXIAMEIGUOYUELUOSIDEGUANXIBIJIAOJIEJIN“XINLENGZHAN”MOSHI,ERFEICHUANTONGYIYISHANGDELENGZHANGUANXI——ZHENGCHANGERYOUXIANJIAOWANGXIADEDISHIDUILI。MEIGUODUIMUQIANZHONGMEIGUANXIDEDINGYIJIESHIWEI“DAGUOJINGZHENG”,BAOHANJINGJIJINGZHENG、YISHIXINGTAIJINGZHENG、DIYUANZHENGZHIJINGZHENG、JUNSHIJINGZHENG、KEJIJINGZHENG、JIAOYUJINGZHENGDENGDENG。ERZHONGGUOYUMEIGUOWEILAIGUANXIDEDAZHIYEMIANLINDUOZHONGJUEZE:DUANQILAIKAN,ZHONGGUOQINGXIANGYUJIXUWEICHIXIANZHUANG,DANCIFEIMEIGUOSUOYUAN;JINQIXIANQIREYIDE“MAOYIZHAN”DANGRANYESHIXUANXIANGZHIYI,DANWUYIHUIDUISHUANGFANGDOUZAOCHENGZHONGDASUNHAO;ZONGTILAIKAN,XIANGQUDESHUANGYING,ZESHIZAIBOYIZHONGXINGCHENGLIANGZHONGMOSHIGONGSHENGDEGUIZEYUBIANJIE——ZHEIDUISHUANGFANGLAISHUO,DOUSHIJIANNANDETIAOZHAN。

 

解读当代中东困局

一、何为“中东”?

侠客棋牌TANJISHIJIEZHENGZHI、ZONGJIAOWENTI,“ZHONGDONG”YIJINGCHENGWEIDAZHONGERSHUNENGXIANGDEZHUANYOUMINGCI。WANGYUJIELAOSHIZHICHU,SHISHISHANG,YONGLAIDAIZHIYIYISILANJIAOXINYANGHUOYISILANWENHUAWEIZHUDEXIYA、BEIFEIZHI“ZHONGDONG”GAINIAN,DANSHENGBUGUOYIGEBANSHIJI——19SHIJIZHONGQIYIOUZHOUWEIZHONGXINDESHIJIEDILIGEJUZHONG,“ZHONGDONG”SHIZHIZAI“JINDONG”(AOSIMANTUERQIDIGUO)YU“YUANDONG”(YINDU)ZHIJIANDEYIPIANQUYU,JIXIANZAIDEBOSIWANDIQU,ERZHANHOUBEIFEIDEALABOGUOJIAYEBEINARU“ZHONGDONG”DEFANWEI。JINGUAN“ZHONGDONG”ZAIBUTONGDELISHISHIQIZHISHEBUTONGDEQUYU,DANJINRIZHI“ZHONGDONG”,ZIGUYILAIDOUSHIOUYAGEDADIGUOZHENGBADUOQUANDEHEXINQUYU——CONGLUOMADIGUODAOALABODIGUO、AOSIMANDIGUO,OUZHOUYUXIANJINSUOZHIDE“ZHONGDONG”HUOSHUOMUSILINSHIJIEYIZHICHUYUBUDUANDUIKANGYOUJINMILIANXIDEFUZAGUANXIZHIZHONG。

SHIJIUSHIJIHOU,RIYIJUEQIDEOUZHOU,TONGGUO1916NIANDESAIKESIPIKEXIEDINGWANCHENGLEDUIAOSIMANTUERQIDIGUODEGUAFEN,YEYIWEIZHEQIDUIZHONGDONGJIANLILESHIJIDEKONGZHIQUAN。ZUOWEIYIZHANZHANSHENGGUO,YINGFALUXUJIESHOUXIRIAOSIMANTUERQIDIGUODESHILIFANWEI,JIANGQIBIANWEIZIJIDEZHIMINDIHUOBANZHIMINDI。QURUDEZHIMINJINGLIJINGYOUSHIJIEDAZHANDECUIHUAJIFACHUMINZUZHUYIDULILANGCHAO,ZAILIANGCISHIJIEDAZHANZHENTONGHOUDESHEHUIYUNDONGYUZHENGZHIYUNDONGZHONG,YILANG、TUERQI、AIJIDENGXIANDAIZHONGDONGGUOJIAJIANLI,ZHUBUGOUCHENGDANGJIN“ZHONGDONG”DIYUANGEJU。

 

二、曲折中探索

HUIGUMEIGEZHONGDONGGUOJIADEFAZHANLISHI,WUYINENGFAXIANTAMENGONGTONGJINGLILE“BAITUOZHIMINTONGZHI-JIANLIDULIGUOJIA”DEGUOCHENG。YOUYUOUZHOU、TEBIESHIXIOUDEMINZUGUOJIA,ZIJINDAIYILAICHENGWEIMINZUGUOJIAJIANSHEDEDIANFAN,ZAISHIJIEFANWEINEICHANSHENGLEHENQIANGDESHIFANXIAOYING。ZHEIXIEMUSILINGUOJIAZAIJIANGUOHEDULIGUOCHENGZHONG,BUTONGCHENGDUDIXIAOFANGLEXIOUXIANDAIMINZUGUOJIADEFANLI。ZHEIYESHIDEZHEIXIEGUOJIAYUOUZHOUGEGUOZHIJIANJUYOUYIZHONGMAODUNERTESHUDEQINJINGUANXI。

侠客棋牌ZHONGDONGGUOJIAZAIJIANGUOCHUQI,DUOCHANGSHICAIYONGXIFANGSHIDESHISUHUADAOLU,NULIYISUOWEIMINZHUHUOJUNZHULIXIANZHI、MINZHUGONGHEZHILAITANSUOSHIHEZISHENDELUXIAN,BIRUSHANGSHIJIZHONGQIDEYILANG、AFUHANDENGGUOQINGNIANNANNV,XIHAOCHUANZHEXISHIDEFUZHUANGSHIREN——WANGLAOSHIQIANGDIAO,ZHEIYIXIANXIANGDEBEIHOU,SHISHISUHUADEXISHIDAOLUYUSHEHUIDICENGMINZHONGZHIJIANDESILIE,YIFANGMIANXIFANGHUADESHANGCENGDELIBINGJIJIZHICHI,LINGYIFANGMIANDICENGMINZHONGDESHENGCUNJINGYURIYIYANJUN。ZHEIZHONGSHEHUISILIEDEJINGXIANGJINYIBUCUCHENGSHANGSHIJIWULIUSHINIANDAIZHONGDONGGUOJIAZUOYISICHAODESHENGXING。

侠客棋牌ZUOYISICHAOSHENGXINGDENIANDAI,ZHENGSHIZHONGDONGCHUYUDONGFANGHEXIFANG、SHEHUIZHUYIYUZIBENZHUYILIANGDAZHENYINGZHIJIANDELISHISHIQI。RUJINCHANGBEIHULVEDEZHONGDONGZUOYISICHAO,ZAIDANGSHIDEYISILANSHIJIECHANSHENGJULIEDEYINGXIANG,YOUQIBIAOXIANZAIZHENGZHILINGYUSHANG,YIXIETONGZHIZHEKAISHISHITUYISHEHUIZHUYISILUZHILIGUOJIA,YISILANSHEHUIZHUYISUIZHIYINGYUNERSHENG。

ZUOYISICHAOXINGQIBINGMEIYOUDUIZHONGDONGGEGUODEGUOJIAJIANGOUCHANSHENGMINGXIANERJIJIDEZUOYONG,HENDUORENZHUJIANYISHIDAO,BUGUANSHIXIANGDONGHAISHIXIANGXI,BUGUANSHIZIBENZHUYIHAISHISHEHUIZHUYI,DOUWUFAYUYISILANSHEHUIXIANGSHIYING。YISILANZHUYISICHAOJIANJIANXINGQI,TACHANGDAO“YISILANDAOLU”SHIFUHEZHONGDONGSHIJIFAZHANDEWEIYILUXIAN,ZHUZHANGYISILANJIAOZAISHEHUISHENGHUO、GUOJIAZHENGZHIDENGGEGELINGYUFAHUITONGSHEXINGDEZUOYONG。1979NIANYILANGYISILANGEMINGWUYIWEIMEIGUOZAILENGZHANSHIQIDEZHONGDONGSHIWUZAOCHENGJUDADAJI,ZHICIYILANGKAISHIZHUANRUQUANMIANFANMEILUXIAN。CIWAI,RANGOUZHOU、MEIGUO、SULIANDOUZHESUNSHENJUDEAFUHANZHANZHENG,WEIZHONGDONGDIQULIUXIAYIZHIPANGDADE、SHOUGUOXUNLIANDE,ERQIESHANYUCONGYISILANSIXIANGLAICHANFAZIJIGEMINGYISHIXINGTAIDESHENGZHANZUZHI。ZHEIXIEDOUDUIZHIHOUZHONGDONGZHENGZHIDEFAZHANCHANSHENGLEYINGXIANG。

 

三、左右为难的中东困局

WANGYUJIELAOSHIZHICHU,20SHIJIQIANBANQIJIANLIDEDADUOSHUZHONGDONGGUOJIAZAIZHENGZHI、JINGJIHEWENHUAGEFANGMIANZHENGTISHANGCHUYUTUISHI,MIANLINFAZHANKUNJING。SHOUXIAN,ZAIZHENGZHIJINGJIFANGMIAN,BIAOXIANWEISANDIAN:QIYI,SANGSHIZHUQUAN,WAILAIGANSHEPINXIAN,LUNWEIDAILIRENZHANZHENGZHANCHANG;DIER,ZHENGZHIWUXU,NEIZHANPINFAN,JIAOPAI、MINZUCHONGTUBUDUAN;DISAN,KEJILUOHOU,JINGJISHUAITUI,MINSHENGJIANNAN。

侠客棋牌QICI,ZAISIXIANGWENHUAFANGMIAN,WANGLAOSHIRENWEI,YISILANSIXIANGDEJIJINHUAFAZHANSHIQIDANGQIANZUIWEIZHONGYAODETIAOZHAN。JUTIERYAN,20SHIJIZHONGHOUQIYILAI,ZHENGZHIHUANJINGDEELIEWEIJIJINZHUYIDEFAZHANZHUNBEILEFEIWODETURANG,ZAIZHONGDONGDIQUCHUANTONGSHENHOUDEYISILANJIAOSHICHANGWEIJIDUANZHUYIBANGJIA,CHENGWEITARENYANZHONGDEYIJIHELINGRENJINGTIDETAZHE;JIJINSIXIANG(BIRUSHENGZHANSAILAIFEIZHUYI)LIUXING,KONGBUZHUYISHIJIANPINFA;YISILANJIAOWUMINGHUA,ER“WENHEDEDADUOSHU”QUEMEIYOUNENGLIFACHUZIJIDESHENGYIN——WULUNSHIZHENGZHIQUANWEI、ZONGJIAOLINGXIU,HAISHIPUTONGDAZHONG,SIHUMEIYOURENYOUNENGLIWEIWEILAIFAZHANKAICHUGENGWEIGUANGMINGDECHUFANG。

侠客棋牌ZHONGDONGDIQUDEWENTIXIANGLAIWUFAHUIBIWAIBUSHIJIEYUQIDEBOYI。WANGYUJIELAOSHITIXING,YOUQIZAIQUANQIUHUASHIDAI,TAOLUNZHONGDONGNEIBUZISHENWENTISHI,TONGSHIBUNENGHUSHIZHEIXIEXIANXIANGDEWAIYIHEKUOSAN。CHULEYISILANJIJINZHUYIWAI,DANGQIANBIANJUXIADERENKOUQIANYISHIOUZHOUYIXIECHUANTONGSHANGSHOUYISILANJIAOYINGXIANGJIXIAODEGUOJIAZHONGDEMUSILINRENKOUJIJUZENGJIA,BINGQIEYISILANJIAOCHENGWEIJIDUJIAOZHIHOUDEDIERDAXINYANG;HENDUORENDANYOUMUSILINYIMINDEZHONGZU、WENHUAHEZONGJIAOYINGXIANGHUIGAIBIANOUZHOUYUANBENZHONGZUHEWENHUASHANGJIAOWEIDANYIDESHEHUI,JINERZHENGFUOUZHOU;BUDUANSHENGWENDENANMINCHAOGENGJIAJULE“YISILANKONGJUZHENG”DEFANLAN。

侠客棋牌HUODONGXINGZHIWEISHENG,WANGYUJIELAOSHI、DAWEILAOSHIFENBIEJIUTIWENZHEGUANYU“MEIGUODEZHONGDONGZHANLVE”、“ZHONGDONGZONGJIAOYUMINZU”KUAXUEKEFAZHAN、“TAIWAN、CHAOXIANBANDAOJUSHI”、“MEIGUOSHUAITUILUN”、“DAGUOJINGZHENG”、“ZHONGGUOYUFEIZHOU”、“MEIGUOMINJIANDUIHUATAIDU”、“OUZHOUYUZHONGMEIGUANXI”DENGWENTIJINXINGJIEDABINGZHANKAIJIAOLIU,JINYIBUSHENHUALEBENCISHALONGNEIRONG。

侠客棋牌ZAICIYEGANXIEDAOCHANGTINGZHONGMENDEZHICHI,BAOZHENGLEHUODONGDEYUANMANJINXING。


BENWENWEIYUANCHUANGWENZHANG,HUANYINGMEITIZHUANZAI,ZHUANFAQINGBIAOZHULAIYUAN。