GAOCHENG

侠客棋牌DAGUOBOYIXIADECHAOXIANBANDAOJUSHI,TEBIESHICHAOHEWENTIRUJINYICHENGWEIZHONGGUOZHOUBIANWAIJIAOJIXUTUPODENANDIAN。ZHEIQIZHONG,ZHONGCHAOZHEIYICHUANTONGYOUYIGUANXIHEQUHECONGJUYOUXIANGDANGDEBUQUEDINGXING,QIZOUXIANGGUANXIDAODONGBEIYADIQUDEWENDINGHEZHONGGUOJUEQIZHIDAJU。ZHONGGUOZHIDINGDUICHAOZHENGCESHOUXIANXUYAOJIYUDUIZHONGCHAOGUANXIDANGXIAXINGZHIDEPANDUANHEBAWO,ZAIZHEIGEJICHUSHANG,CAINENGGENGHAODITONGGUOZHONGSUZHONGCHAOGUANXI,YISHIXIANZHONGGUOZISHENLIYIZUIDAHUA,HEZHAODAOYOUXIAOJIEJUECHAOHEWENTIDEYAOCHI。MUQIANDEZHONGCHAOGUANXIXUYAOJIEHELISHIWEIDUYUDANGXIAZHANLVEHUANJINGYUESHUJINXINGZHONGXINSHENSHIHEDINGWEI。

一、中朝关系性质再定位:走出“大哥-小弟”的思维误区

侠客棋牌ZHANGJIUYILAI,ZHONGGUOSHEHUI,BAOKUOZHENGCEJIEDUIZHONGCHAOGUANXICUNZAIYIGERENSHIWUQU,JIRENWEICHAOXIANCENGJINGSHI、RUJINYIRANSHIZHONGGUODE“XIAODI”,ZHEIYIRENZHITONGSHIBEICHUANDIZHIGUOJISHEHUI。ERRUJIN,ZHEIYIRENSHIWUQUBUDANZAIZHONGGUOGUONEIXINGCHENGLEMOUZHONGDUICHAOQINGXUHUADEZHENGCELUOJI,ERQIEZAIGUOJISHEHUIWEIZHONGGUOBEIFUCHAOHEWENTIDAILAIJUDADEYALI。ZHEIZHONGRENSHIBINGBUFUHEERZHANHOUZHONGCHAOGUANXIDEZHENSHIZHUANGTAI。JIANYAOHUIGULISHI,ZAILENGZHANSHIQI,CHAOXIANZHUYAOSHISULIANDEZHUISUIZHE,LENGZHANJIESHUHOU,CHAOXIANDUIZHONGGUOBINGBUCUNZAISHISHISHANGDEANQUAN、ZHENGZHIHUOJINGJIYILAIGUANXI。

侠客棋牌ERZHANJIESHUHOU,CHAOXIANYIDUBEINARUSULIANDEJIHUAJINGJITIXI,SULIANBANGZHUCHAOXIANDAXIAMUQIANDEGUOMINJINGJIJICHU。ZAIERZHANJIESHUHOUZUICHU30NIANSHIJIANLI,CHAOXIANJINGJIHESHENGHUOSHUIPINGYIZHIZAIHANGUOZHISHANG。HOULAIHANGUOZAIMEIGUOZHUDAODEJINGJIFENGONGLIANTIAOZHONGHOULAIZHEJUSHANG,CHENGWEI“SIXIAOLONG”ZHIYI。CHAOXIANSUIRANBEIHANGUOGANCHAO,DANZAISULIANZHUDAODEJINGJITIXIZHONGRENGBAOCHIJIAOHAODEFAZHANSHITOU。1988NIANHANCHENGAOYUNHUISHI,ZHONGGUOSHEHUIHAIYOUYIJUKOUHAO:DAO1990NIANBEIJINGYAYUNHUISHI,BEIJINGRENMINDESHENGHUOZHENGQUDADAOPINGRANGRENMINDESHUIPING。JINGUANZHONGGUORENMINZHIYUANJUNZAI“KANGMEIYUANCHAO”ZHANZHENGZHONGXISHENGJUDA,DANYOUYUZHONGSUGUANXIDEMOCAHEPOLIE,ZHONGSUCHAOGUANXIBINGWEIZHENZHENGLISHUN,ERBISHIDECHAOXIANRENGSHOUXIANSHISULIANERBUSHIZHONGGUODEZHUISUIZHE,ZHEIZHONGZHUANGTAIYIZHICHIXUDAO1991NIANSULIANJIETI。

SULIANJIETIHOU,YELIQINSHIQIDEELUOSIGEFANGMIANZIGUBUXIA,ERQIEYIDUSHITUZOUXIANGYITIAOQUANMIANDAOXIANGXIFANGDEDAOLU,ZAIANQUAN、ZHENGZHIHEJINGJILINGYUDOUWULIZAIGUJICHAOXIANZHEIGEBIANYUANLIYIGUOJIA。JIEXIALAIDIERNIAN,YEJIUSHI1992NIAN,DENGXIAOPINGNANFANGJIANGHUA,ZHONGGUOJIADAGAIGEKAIFANGBUFA,BINGKAISHINULIRONGRUMEIGUOHEXIFANGDEGUOJITIXI,TONGNIANZHONGHANZHENGSHIJIANJIAO。CIHOU,ZAIANQUANLINGYU,ZHONGELIANGGUODOUMEIYOUWEICHAOXIANTIGONGHEBAOHUSANHECHANGGUIJUNSHIBAOHU,BINGQIESHISHISHANGBUZAICHENGNUOHUOJIANXINGYUCHAOXIANZHIJIANDEJUNSHITONGMENGYIWU。SUCHAOZHIJIANDETONGMENGXIEDINGSUIZHESULIANJIETIERZIRANFEIZHI,ER《ZHONGCHAOYOUHAOTIAOYUE》DIERTIAOSUIJUYOUJUNSHITONGMENGHEBAOHUXINGZHI,DANSHISHISHANGYEYIBUZAIYONGYOUSHIJIYUESHULI。JINGJISHANG,ZHONGGUOSUIRANYIZHIWEICHAOXIANTIGONGLIANGSHI、NENGYUANDENGYUANZHU,DANCHAOXIANJINGJIBINGBUCENGBEINARUDAOZHONGGUOJINGJITIXIYIJISHIJIEFENGONGTIXIZHONG,CHAOXIANDUIZHONGGUOMEIYOUCUIRUOXINGYILAIDEJINGJIGUANXI。ZHENGZHISHANG,ZHONGGUOFENGXINGBUGANSHEBIEGUONEIZHENGYUANZE,JINRICHENGHEJINZHENGRIZHENGFUZAICHAOXIANQINGXIQINHUAPAISHI,ZHONGGUOBINGWEIBAOZHUCHAOXIANGUONEIDEQINHUALILIANG,ZAIZHANGCHENGZEBEICHUJUEHOU,RUJINCHAOXIANGUONEIZAIZHONGCHAOZHIJIANNENGQIANXIANDAQIAO、JIANLISHUNCHANGDUIHUADEQUDAOYIJINGSHIFENYOUXIAN。

侠客棋牌ZONGSHANG,LENGZHANJIESHUHOU,CHAOXIANDUIZHONGGUOMEIYOUANQUANYIFUGUANXI,JINGJIYILAIXIANGDUIYOUXIAN,ZHONGGUODUICHAOXIANYEMEIYOUZHENGZHISHENTOULIJIYUZHIXIANGGUANDEKONGZHINENGLI,ZHONGGUOMUQIANNANYIPOSHICHAOXIANZHENGQUANGAIBIANQIDUIWAIXINGWEI。YINCI,YIZHIYILAIGUONEIXUANCHUANZAOCHENGDEYIGEWUQU,JIZHONGCHAOGUANXI“DAGE-XIAODI”ZHISHUOBINGBUNENGKEGUAN、ZHENSHIDITIXIANLENGZHANHOUDEZHONGCHAOGUANXIXINGZHI。1991NIANZHIQIAN,CHAOXIANGENGDUOSHISULIANDEZHUISUIZHE,ER1991NIANZHIHOU,CHAOXIANSHIYIGEYIFUBUSHANGRENHEZHOUBIANDAGUODEDULIGUOJIA。JINGUANCHAOXIANZHIYUZHONGGUOKENDINGBUSHIYIGEKAOPUDE“XIAODI”,DANZHONGGUODUIYUCHAOXIANYEXIANRANBUSHIYIGECHENGZHIDE“DAGE”,ZHONGCHAO“DAGE-XIAODIGUANXISHUO”GENGDUOZHISHIZHONGGUOSHEHUIDEYIXIANGHEGUOJISHEHUIDEWUDU。TEBIESHIZAICHAOXIANYIJINGSHISHIYONGHEDETIAOJIANXIA,BUGUANZHONGGUOSHIFOUYUANYIJIESHOU,CHAOXIANYIJINGSHIYIGEYOUNENGLIYIJUZISHENGUONEIZHENGZHIXUQIUHEDUIWAILIYIZHIDINGZHENGCEDEDULIGUOJIA,CHAOXIANBUHUIWEIRAOZHONGGUOZHANLVELIYISIKAOWENTIHEZHIDINGZHENGCE。DUIZHEIYICENGMIANDEQINGXINGRENSHI,GUANXIDAOWOMENRUHEKANDAIWEILAIDEZHONGCHAOGUANXISUZAOWENTI。

二、重塑中朝关系:那些似是而非与似非而是

侠客棋牌ZAIZHONGCHAOGUANXIZHONGSUDEGUOCHENGZHONG,XUEJIEHEZHENGCEJIECUNZAIJIAODADEFENQI,CUNZAIYIXIESISHIERFEIHESIFEIERSHIDEZHENGLUN。

QIYI,XUEJIEHEZHENGCEJIEZHENGLUNYIJIUDE“BAOCHAOLUN”HE“QICHAOLUN”SHISHISHANGYISHIBUHESHIYIDEMINGTI。ZHONGCHAOGUANXIXUYAOZHONGXINSHENSHIHEZAIDIAOZHENG。ZHONGGUOYINGCONGZHENGCHANGGUOJIAGUANXIDEJIAODU,YIZISHENLIYIWEICHUFADIAN,PINGGUDUIFANGDEXINGWEIHEXUANZEZISHENDECELVE。DANGNIANZHONGSUGUANXIHERUJINZHONGCHAOGUANXILEIBI,ZAIQINGXURENZHISHANGYOUXIANGSIXING。ZHONGGUOKEYIJIEJIANSULIANJIETIHOU,ZHONGEGUANXIDELIXINGZHONGSUJINGYAN。ZHONGGUODUICHAOWAIJIAOXUYAODIAOZHENGXINTAI,YUCHAOXIANDANGXIADEJIAOWANG,SHOUXIANBUYINGJIANGZHONGDIANFANGZAIWEICHISHEHUIZHUYIZHENYING“DAGE”HE“XIAODI”DELISHIXUEMAIYOUYISHANG,ERYINGGENGDUOJIANLIDAGUOHEZHOUBIANDULIGUOJIAZHIJIANXIANGHUHEZUODEGUANXI。YUZHIXIANGDUIYING,ZHONGGUOYUCHAOXIANDEGUANXIHUDONG、WAIJIAODINGXINGHEDUINEIDUIWAIXUANCHUANLINGYUDEBIAOSHUYEYAOSUIZHIDIAOZHENG。

QIER,ZAICHULIDUICHAOGUANXISHI,ZHONGGUOYAOBIMIANQINGXUHUADAOXIANG,BUYAOXIANRUYICHENGFACHAOXIANDESUOWEI“BAIYANLANG”HE“BUTINGHUA”XINGWEIWEIMUDEDEXINGSHILUOJI,TONGSHIYEYAOJINGTIZHONGGUOSHEHUIJIANGCHAOXIANWENTIYISHIXINGTAIHUADEFENGXIAN,TEBIEYAOFANGFANCONGYISHIXINGTAIDUICHAOXIANDEHAOEQINGXUCHUFABANGJIAZHONGGUODUICHAOZHENGCE。DUICHAOXIAN“BAIYANLANG”HE“BUTINGHUA”DEFUMIANQINGXU,SHIJIYUZHONGGUOYUCHAOXIANSHI“DAGE”YU“XIAODI”GUANXIMOSHIZHISHANGDESISHIERFEIDESIWEIFANGSHI。ZHONGGUOYINGDANGJIESHOUXIANYOUYUESHUTIAOJIAN,ZHENZHENGYIZISHENLIYIZUIDAHUAWEIMUBIAOSUZAOZHONGCHAOGUANXI,ZHEIQIZHONGYOUQIYAOBIMIANYINDUICHAOXIANDEFUMIANQINGXUERQINGYIZUOCHUMAOJINDECHAOXIANBANDAOZHANLVEDIAOZHENG。KUANGQIE,ZHONGGUOMUQIANQUEFARANGCHAOXIANWEIRAOZHONGGUOLIYIZHIDINGDUIWAIZHANLVEHEYINGXIANGDUIFANGHEZHANLVEDENENGLI,YINCILIXINGDUIDAIHECHENGRENXIANZHUANGJICHUSHANGZHONGJIANZHONGCHAOJINLINGUANXISHIDANGXIAXIANSHIDECELVEXUANZE。

侠客棋牌QISAN,JINNIANLAIZHIYICHAOXIANDUIZHONGGUOJUYOUZHANLVEHUANCHONGDIYUANJIAZHIDEGUANDIANYUELAIYUEDUO,JINGUANSUIZHEXIANDAIGUOJIZHENGZHIHUANJINGDEBIANHUAJIJUNSHIJISHUDEJINBU,CHUANTONGDIYUANZHENGZHIDEJIAOKESHUXUYAOYUSHIJUJIN,DANMUQIANLIUXINGDEYIZHONGCHEDIDIANFUDIYUANZHANLVESHIJIAODEKANFAYISHIFENWEIXIAN,JIRENWEIZHONGGUOKEYIZUOSHISHENZHIYINGDANGTUIJINCHAOBANDAODETONGYIJINCHENG。CHUFEIZAIYIXIALIANGGESHEJIZHONGGUOHEXINLIYIDEWENTISHANG,ZHONGGUOHEMEIGUOJICHAOHANLIANGGUODACHENGZHENGSHISHUMIANXINGSHIDEGUOJITIAOYUEHUOXIEYI——YISHICHAOHANLIANGGUOBIXUMINGQUEZHANGBAISHANLINGTUZHUQUANGUISHUZHONGGUO,ERSHIMEIJUNBUDEYUEGUOSANBAXIANWEIXIEZHONGGUOBIANJINGANQUAN,FOUZEQINGYANCHAOXIANBANDAOTONGYIJIANGHOUHUANWUQIONG。JIBIANRUCI,MEIGUODECHENGNUOKEXINDUYISHIFENBUKEKAO。ZHONGGUOBUYINGWANGJIMEIGUOCENGCHENGNUOSULIANBEIYUEBUDONGKUOYIHUANQUSULIANJIESANHUAYUE,QUEZAICIHOUJIANGBEIYUEBIANJINGXIANBUDUANDICONGDONGOUTUIJINDAOBOLUODIHAISANGUO,ZHIHOUYOUSHITUQINSHIGELUJIYAHEWUKELAN;YIJIMEIGUOGONGRANDANBIANTUICHUMEISU(E)LIANGGUOQIANSHUDE《FANDANDAODAODANTIAOYUE》ZHIQIANLI。

侠客棋牌QISI,ZHONGGUODUICHAOXIANDEZHUYAOGONGZUOZHONGDIANYINGCONGJINGJIYUANZHUHUANQUZHENGZHIGUANXIWENDINGDEJIUSILU,ZHUANBIANWEIGENGJIAZHUZHONGANQUANLINGYUHEZUO,TEBIESHIHEANQUANLINGYUDEHEZUO。ZHONGGUODUICHAOJINGJIYUANZHUDAILAIDEZHENGZHISHOUYIXIAOGUOBUJIA,ERANQUANLINGYUDEBAOHUGENGYOUZHUYUZHONGSUZHONGCHAOGUANXI。BIYAOSHI,ZHONGGUOKEKAOLVZAIHEANQUANLINGYUWEICHAOXIANTIGONGYIDINGDEJISHUZHICHI。ZHONGCHAOLIANGGUOJIERANGDEXIANSHI,SHIDECHAOXIANHEANQUANWENTI,TEBIESHIBIMIANHESHIGUBOJIWODONGBEIDIQU,BIXUCHENGWEIZHONGGUOZHOUBIANANQUANDEGUANQIEDIAN。ZHONGGUOZAIHEANQUANLINGYUWEICHAOXIANTIGONGJISHUZHICHIYUHEZUO,BUYIWEIZHEZHONGGUOCHENGRENCHAOXIANYONGHEDEGUOJIHEFAXING,ERSHICHUYUZHONGGUOZISHENANQUANDEBIYAOXINGKAOLIANG,ERQIEZHONGGUOYEKEYIYICIWEIQIJI,DAPOZHONGCHAOGUANXIRUJINDEJIANGJU。

三、朝核问题的困局:冲突的战略目标如何排序?

HEWENTISHIZHONGSHIYINGRAOZAICHAOXIANBANDAOSHANGKONGDEYINYUN,TONGSHIYESHIZHONGCHAOGUANXIZHONGSUGUOCHENGZHONGWUFAHUIBIDEYIGEKUNJU。ZAICHAOHEWENTISHANG,RUJINZHONGGUOYOUBIYAODUILIANGGEWENTIJINXINGQINGXIDEPANDUAN:QIYI,CHAOXIANYOUMEIYOUZAIJUNSHIHEJINGJIYALIXIAQIHEDEXIANSHIKENENG?QIER,DANGZHONGGUOZAICHAOHEWENTISHANGZHUIQIUDEMUBIAOBICICHONGTUSHI,GAIRUHEJINXINGPAIXURANGZISHENLIYIZUIDAHUA?ZHEILIANGGEWENTIDEPANDUANZHIJIEGUANXIDAOZHONGGUOGAIRUHEZAICHAOHEHECHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGSHEDINGHELISHUNZHANLVEMUBIAO。

PANDUANCHAOXIANSHIFOUYOUQIHEDEKENENGXING,WOMENYAOKANCHAOXIANYUANHEYONGHEDELUOJI,PINGGUXIANYOUPOSHICHAOXIANQIHEDESHOUDUANDEXIAOLI,YIJIXIANJIEDUANYIJUYOUYONGHENENGLIDECHAOXIANDEZHANLVESUQIU。

侠客棋牌SHOUXIAN,SULIANJIETIHEZHONGGUOYUXIFANGJIHANGUOJIANJIAOHOU,CHAOXIANANQUANSHANGYOUQIANGLIEDEJIAOLVGAN,JINGJISHANGZIYUANPINFAYOUBEICHEDISHUAICHUGUOJIFENGONGTIXI。BISHIDECHAOXIANZHENGQUANDELIANGDAMUBIAOSHIHUODEDUIWAIANQUANBAOZHANGHEWENGUZISHENTONGZHIDIWEI,YINCIXUANZELEXIANJUNZHENGZHI,BINGJUEDINGFAZHANHELILIANG,SHITUYONGJUNSHIWEISHEQIAOKAIYUMEIGUODEDUIHUADAMEN,HUODEMEIGUODEANQUANCHENGNUO。RUJINWAIJIEGENGDUOKANDAODESHI,CHAOXIANFAZHANHELILIANGZAOYUGUOJISHEHUIFENGSUOHEZHICAI,JINGJIXIANRUEXINGXUNHUAN,WAIBUZHENGZHIHUANJINGEHUA。DANJINGUANRUCI,CHAOXIANFAZHANHEWUSHIJIYUQIZISHENZHENGQUANTONGZHIWENDING、GUOJIAANQUAN、DULIWAIJIAODENGGUOJIALIYIHETONGZHIJITUANHEXINLIYIDELIXINGXINGWEI。ZAIMEIRIHANJUNSHITONGMENGZAIDONGBEIYAXIANSHICUNZAIDEQINGKUANGXIA,TEBIEZAISADAMU、KAZHAFEIDENGZHENGQUANFANGQIFAZHANHEWUDEJIAOXUNMIANQIAN,CHAOXIANZHENGQUANDUIZISHENTONGZHIHEGUOJIADUIWAIANQUANDEGUANQIESHIQIYONGHEDEHEXINLUOJI,ZHEIYILUOJIMUQIANNANYIDAPO。

侠客棋牌QICI,MUQIANGUOJISHEHUISHITUTONGGUOJINGJIZHICAIPOSHIQIFANGQIFAZHANHEWU,RANERCONGJINGYANSHANGKAN,JINGJIZHICAIZAIGAIBIANYIGEGUOJIADUIWAIZHANLVEFANGMIANDEZUOYONGSHIFENYOUXIAN,TEBIESHEJIGUOJIAANQUANHETONGZHIWENDINGFANCHOUSHI,JINGJIZHICAIYALIDEXIAOGUOJIHUSHILING。CHENGRUPUJINGSUOYAN,“YILAKEHELIBIYADELIZIYIRANGCHAOXIANYISHIDAO,HEWEISHESHIWEIYINENGBAOZHANGQIANQUANDEFANGSHI。ZHICAIWUJIYUSHI,CHAOXIANNINGYUANCHICAOYEBUHUIFANGQIHESHIYAN。”YUCITONGSHI,TONGGUOJINGJIZHICAIHUIRANGCHAOXIANXURUODEGUOMINJINGJIJINYIBUEHUADAOZHIQIZHENGQUANBENGKUI,GENGSHIBUQIESHIJIDEMUBIAO。

侠客棋牌ZAICI,WOMENYINGDONGTAIDIKANDAICHAOXIANQIHEDETIAOJIANHENANDU。ZAIDANGNIANCHAOXIANCHUYUHESHIYANPAPODIDUANDECHUANGKOUQI,CHAOXIANCENGBIAOSHIYUANYIQIHEHUANQUMEIGUOYIZHI《CHAOMEIHEPINGTIAOYUE》,DANRUJINYEYIYONGYOUHELILIANGDECHAOXIANSHOUZHONGDEBOYICHOUMAYIJINFEIXIBI,QIZHANLVESUQIUYISUIZHIFASHENGBIANHUA。TEBIESUIZHEZHOUJIDAODANHEQINGDANSHIYANDECHENGGONG,CHAOXIANRUJINYIJINGCHENGWEIDONGBEIYADEDULIWANJIA,BUKENENGZAIJIESHOUDANGNIANTONGGUOQIHEJIAOHUANMEIGUOANQUANCHENGNUODEJIAOYI。

侠客棋牌ZONGSHANGSUOSHU,YIFANGMIAN,ZUOWEIYIGEWEIQUEBAOSHENGCUNDEZHENGQUAN,CHAOXIANHUIWEIBAOLIUHELILIANGBUXIYIZHAN。LINGYIFANGMIAN,GUOJISHEHUIMEIYOUCHUJUNSHIDAJIZHIWAILINGCHAOXIANQIHEDEYOUXIAOSHOUDUAN。RUCIYILAI,ZHONGGUORUJINDUIWAIBIAOSHUDECHAOXIANBANDAOSANGEYUANZELICHANG:CHAOBANDAOWUHEHUA,CHAOBANDAOBUZHANBULUAN,HEPINGSHOUDUANZHENGZHIXIESHANGJIEJUE,ZAIZHANLVESHANGHENNANTONGSHISHIXIAN。ZAIXIANSHIZHONG,DIYIGEMUBIAOHEHOUMIANLIANGGEMUBIAOZAIMOUZHONGCHENGDUSHANGSHIXIANGHUCHONGTUDE。WULUNWAIJIAOKOUJINGRUHEDUIWAIJINXINGCELVEBIAOSHU,DANWOMENXUYAOQINGXINGRENSHIDAO,SHIJISHANGZHONGGUOZUOBUDAOTONGSHISHIXIANSANGEMUBIAO,ZHEIJIUSHEJIYIGEMUBIAOPAIXUDEWENTI。

ZHONGGUOZAIQUEDINGCHULICHAOHEWENTIDEZHANLVEMUBIAOSHI,YINGZAICHENGRENXIANSHIYUESHUTIAOJIANDEQINGKUANGXIA,SHOUXIANYAOBIMIANCHUXIANZUIHUAIDEJIEGUO,ZAICIJICHUSHANGYIZISHENLIYIZUIDAHUAWEIYUANZE。ZUOSHIMEIGUOJUNSHIDAJICHAOXIANHESHESHIYUHEWUKUYOUKENENGLINGZHONGGUODONGBEIBUDIQUMIANLINDAGAILVHEFUSHEFENGXIAN,SHENZHIZAINAN。SHISHISHANGSHIJIEGEGUODOUCHENGSHOUBUQIZHEIYIDAIJIA,BAOKUOHANGUOHEMEIGUO。YINCI,CHAOBANDAOBUZHANBULUANYINGZHIYUSHIXIANCHAOBANDAOWUHEHUAMUBIAOZHISHANG,ERHEPINGSHOUDUANZHENGZHIXIESHANGJIEJUEZESHISHOUDUANERFEIMUBIAO。QICI,ZHONGGUOYAOZHENGQUBIMIANCIHUAIDEJIEGUO,YIJITIGAOZIJIZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGDEHUAYUQUAN。YINCI,ZHONGGUOSHIJICHULICHAOHEWENTISHIDEZHANLVEMUBIAOYINGBIMIANCHAOXIANDAOXIANGMEIGUOHEXIFANG,JINERBAMAODUNJIAODIANDUIZHUNZHONGGUO,YIJIFANGZHIZHONGGUOZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGHUAYUQUANDESANGSHI。

侠客棋牌ZHONGGUOZAISHIJICHULICHAOHEWENTISHANG,YINGBAGENGDUOJINGLIFANGZAICUJINTANPANDEJINCHENGZHONG,YITIGAOZIJIZAIDONGBEIYADIQUSHIWUDEHUAYUQUAN。JIANGZHUIQIUZHANLVEJIEGUODEMUBIAOSHEDINGDIAOZHENGWEIZHUIQIUZHANLVEGUOCHENG,HENDUONANTIJIUYOUJIEJUECHUKOU。BIRU,ZHONGGUOKEYITUIDONGZHONGECHAOSANBIANGOUTONGJIZHI、JIXUKOUTOUCHANGDAOLIUFANGHUITANJIZHI,GENGKEJIEJIANELUOSIZAIXULIYAHEWUKELANWENTISHANGDECHULIFANGSHI,JITONGGUOJIERUYICHENG,SHIZIJICHENGWEIBUKEHUOQUEDEDAWANJIADIWEI。

四、朝半岛各路玩家的博弈:对手还是伙伴?

ZHONGCHAOSHUANGBIANGUANXIDEZHONGSUYUHUDONGLIBUKAICHAOBANDAOGEFANGBOYIDEDABEIJINGHUANJING,ERQIESHENSHOUQIYINGXIANG。ZHEIQIZHONG,MINGQUESHEISHIWOMENDEBOYIDUISHOU,SHEISHIWOMENDEHEZUOHUOBAN,YIJIRUHEZAICELVESHANGHEZHANLVECENGMIANCHULIHAOYUXIANGGUANGUOJIADEGUANXI,ZHIDINGMUBIAOMINGQUEDEZHENGCE,ZHEIJIANGMIQIEGUANXIDAOCHAOBANDAOJUSHINENGFOUWENDING,YIJICHAOHEWENTINENGFOUBEINARUDAOJIJIDEYICHENGHEYOUXIAODEJINZHANZHONG。

1.以策略博弈为主的中美韩互动

ZHONGMEILIANGGUOZAICHAOBANDAODEGUANXIZHUYAOSHIYICELVEXINGBOYIHEGOUTONGSHANGYIWEIZHU。ZHONGMEIHEZUOCHULICHAOBANDAOTEBIESHICHAOHEWENTISHIXUYAOTEBIEZHUYI,ZHONGGUOBUNENGZAIMEIGUODEYITI、KUANGJIA、JIEZOU,TEBIEBUNENGZAIMEIGUOYALIXIAKAIQIBEIDONGHEZUOJINCHENG,YOUQIBUYIJIGUOJISHEHUIZHEIYANGDERENZHI。ZAIMUQIANZHONGGUONANYIZHUDAOCHAOBANDAOYICHENGDEQINGKUANGXIA,JIANGYUMEIGUOHEZUOKANZUOJIEJUECHAOBANDAODEYAOCHISHIYIGEBUKEQUDESILU。ZHONGGUOCHUYUZISHENLIYI,WULUNSHICHENGFAHUOSHILALONGCHAOXIAN,DOUYAORANGCHAOXIANHEGUOJISHEHUILIJIE,ZHEISHIZHONGGUOYUCHAOXIANZHIJIANDESHUANGBIANXINGWEI,SHIZHONGCHAOZHIJIANDESHI,ERBUYIRANGWAIJIEWUYIWEIZHONGGUOZHENGZAIMEIGUODESHIYAXIAZHENDUICHAOXIAN,FOUZEHUICHUXIANYIGELINGZHONGGUOXIANRUBEIDONGDEJUMIAN:ZHONGGUOBACHOUHENLADAOZIJISHENSHANG,RANGCHAOXIANBAMAOTOUHEYUANHENDUIZHUNZHONGGUO,TONGSHIQUEBAHUAYUQUANJIAOJIMEIGUO,LINGCHAOXIANRENWEIZHIYOUYUMEIGUOJIANLISHUANGBIANDUIHUACAIYOUXIAO,ZHEITONGSHIYEHUIRANGHANGUOHERIBENGENGYILAIHEYIZHONGYUMEIGUODELIANMENGGUANXI,QIKEGUANJIEGUOSHIBANGZHUMEIGUOZHUDAODONGBEIYAJUSHI,XUERUOZHONGGUOZISHENZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGDEHUAYUQUAN。

侠客棋牌ZHONGGUOYAOTEBIEJINGTITELANGPUZHENGFUXIANZAIZAICHAOHEWENTISHANGPINFANJIZHONGGUODAI“GAOMAOZI”DECELVE,RANGZHONGGUOYI“DAGE”SHENFENGUANSHUCHAOXIAN,BUDUANBIPOZHONGGUOTONGGUOQIEDUANDUICHAOSHIYOUTONGDAODENGGAOYAJINGJISHOUDUANZHENDUICHAOXIAN。TELANGPUZHENGFUDEYITUHENMINGXIAN,YISHIBUDUANJIZHONGGUOSHIYA,BAZHONGGUODINGXIANGMAODUNQIANYAN;ERSHIXIANGCHAOXIAN、HANGUO、RIBENHEGUOJISHEHUISHIFANGXINHAO,ZHONGGUOSHIZAIMEIGUOYALIXIAZHENGZHICHAOXIAN;SANSHIDANGZHONGGUOBUANZHAOMEIGUOYIYUANXINGSHISHI,YI“GUANSHUBULI”、“BUJIJIBANGZHUMEIGUOJIEJUECHAOHEWENTI”DENGJIEKOU,DUIZHONGGUOJIZHONGGUOQIYEJINXINGJINGJIXIEPO。ZHENDUICI,ZHONGGUOSHOUXIANYAOXIANGMEIGUOHEGUOJISHEHUIMINGQUE,ZHONGCHAOZHIJIANSHIDULIZHUQUANGUOJIAZHIJIANDEZHENGCHANGGUANXI,CHAOXIANBINGFEIZHONGGUODEFUYONG,ZHONGGUODUIYUCHAOXIANYONGHEXINGWEIBINGBUFUYOUGUANSHUYIWU。YUCITONGSHI,ZHONGGUOYINGZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGSHIDUQIEGEYUMEIGUODEBUDUICHENGHEZUOGUANXI,ZHONGMEIZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGBIXUYIPINGDENGDESHENFENHEZITAIJINXINGCELVEXINGHEZUO。ZHEIYAOQIUZHONGGUONENGGOUZAIZHEIYIHEZUOZHONGZHANJUYIDINGZHUDONGTICHUYITIHESILU,FOUZEZHONGMEIZHIJIANZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGMEIYOUTAIDUOHEZUOYUDI。

LINGYIZHONGLIUXINGDEGUANDIANSHI,ZHONGGUOYINGGAITUIDONGHECUCHENGMEICHAOLIANGGUODANDUTANPAN,ZHEISHICHAOXIANFEICHANGXIWANGDEJIEGUO,TONGSHIYESHITELANGPUZHENGFUWEILAIYOUKENENGCHANGSHIBAITUOGUONEIYALIQUSHIJIANDESHIQING。AOBAMAMINZHUDANGZHENGFUHENDACHENGDUSHANGGUJIGUONEIDAOYIYULUNYALI,BUDEBUPAICHUYUCHAOXIANZHIJIEHETANDEXUANXIANG,DANTELANGPUZAIZHEIYIWENTISHANGXIANRANGENGJIAWUSHIHEJUYOUKAIFANGXING。MEICHAOZHIJIEHETANDEJIEGUOHUIRANGZHONGGUOZAICHAOBANDAODEJIAOSEBEIBIANYUANHUA,SHENZHIYOUKENENGCUJINCHAOXIANDUIMEIGUODEDAOXIANG。YINCI,ZHONGGUOBUNENGFANGQIZAICHAOBANDAOTUIDONGDUOBIANHETANDEZHUDONGXING,YINGDANGJIJICANYUSHENZHIYINDAOTANPANJINCHENGHEYITI,ZENGJIAZIJIZAIZHEIYIJINCHENGZHONGDEZUOYONG。

ZAIJIEJUECHAOHEDEWENTISHANG,ZHONGGUOBUYAOGAOGUMEIGUODENENGLI、JUEXINHEYIYUAN。MEIGUOTONGYANGMEIYOUGENGHAODESHOUDUANHENENGLIPOSHICHAOXIANQIHE。TEBIESUIZHEZHOUJIDAODANHEQINGDANDESHIYANCHENGGONG,CHAOXIANDUIMEIGUOJIQIMENGGUOJUNSHIWEISHELITIGAO,MEIGUOJIEJUECHAOHEWENTIDEKONGJIANSHIFENYOUXIAN。GENJUHEJUNSHIZHUANJIADEFENXI,RUJINCHAOXIANKENENGYICHUBUSHIXIANHEWUXIAOXINGHUA,MEIGUOHENNANZHUNQUEDINGWEIMUBIAOBINGZAIJUNSHISHANGSHIXIANYICIXINGQINGCHU。TONGSHIJIANYUHANGUODUIYUMEIGUOWULIJIEJUECHAOHEWENTIDEJIDUANQUANDANYOUHEZUNAO,YIJIMEIGUOZAIHANGUODESHUWANZHUJUNZHEIXIETOUSHUJIQIDEYUESHU,MEIGUOTONGGUOWULIJIEJUECHAOHEWENTIBINGBUXIANSHI。CIWAI,WOMENHAIXUYAOZHUYIDAO,ZAICHAOBANDAONANYISHIXIANTONGYIDEQINGKUANGXIA,WEICHIHESHIDUXUANRANCHAOXIANZAIDONGBEIYADEANQUANWEIXIE,YOULIYUMEIGUOZAIGAIDIQUWEICHIMEIRIHANTONGMENGGUANXIDEWENDING,YINCICHAOXIANYONGHEDUIMEIGUOBINGFEIWANQUANBUKEJIESHOUDEXUANXIANG。

LUNJIMEIGUOZAIDONGBEIYADIQUDELIANMENGTIXI,ZHONGGUOWUFAHUIBIRUHECHULILINGYIZUYUZHONGMEIGUANXIMIQIEXIANGGUANDEZHOUBIANGUANXI,JIZHONGHANGUANXI。MEIGUOLIYONGCHAOHEWENTI,ZHENGZHESHOUZAIHANGUOBUSHUSHISHISHANGZHENDUIZHONGELIANGGUODE“SADE”XITONG。ZAIKANDAI“SADE”BUSHUWENTISHANG,ZHONGGUOBUNENGDUIWENZAIYINZHENGFUBAOTAIDAQIWANG。WENZAIYINZHENGFUBUSHIDUTEERTESHIDEMINZUZHUYIZHE,ZAIFEILVBINGUONEIYONGYOUJIANSHIDESHEHUIMINYIJICHUHEZIZHUXING。LISHIHEWAIJIAOJINGYANYIZAIZHENGMING,ZAIRIBENHEHANGUODEZHENGZHISHENGTAIXIA,QINHUADELINGDAORENHENNANYOULIZUZHIDI,MEIGUOYEBUHUIRONGRENZHEIYANGDEZHENGQUANZHANGQICUNZAI。WENZAIYINZHENGFUMEIYOUNENGLIGAIBIANMEIGUOYAOZAIHANGUOBUSHU“SADE”DEJUEDING,QIGENGYOUKENENGDEXUANZESHIBABUSHU“SADE”DEZERENTUIJIPOJINHUIZHENGFUHEJUNFANG,DAN“SADE”BUSHUDESHISHINANYIGAIBIAN。ZHONGGUOZAI“SADE”WENTISHANGBUNENGJINJINKAOLVYUWENZAIYINZHENGFUDEGUANXIJIUWUSUOZUOWEI,ZHEIHUIJIWAIJIEXINGCHENGZHONGGUOZAIZISHENZHONGDAANQUANGUANQIEWENTISHANGBUQUZHENGQU,ERGUOYUQIANJIUMEIGUOJIQIMENGGUODEYINXIANG。DANSHI,ZHONGGUOFANZHI“SADE”BUSHU,ZHONGDIANBUYINGFANGZAIJINGJIZHICAIHUOBIANXIANGJINGJIZHICAIHANGUOSHENSHANG,ZHEIYANGZUOBUDANBUNENGYINGXIANGJIEGUO,ERQIEHUIJIZHOUBIANXIAOJIDESHIFANXIAOYING,JIZHONGGUOHEZHOUBIANGUOJIAYIYOUMAODUNJIUDONGYONGJINGJIXIEPOSHOUDUAN,ZHEIBULIYU“YIDAIYILU”JIANSHEDETUIJIN。“SADE”WENTIDEHEXINZHENGJIEZAIMEIGUOSHENSHANG,SHIMEIGUOERFEIHANGUOYAODAPODAGUOJIANDEZHANLVEHEPINGHENG,HANGUOGENGDUOSHIBEIPOJIESHOUZHEIYIJIEGUO。

ZHONGGUOKEYIKAOLVYOUXIAOLIYONGMEIGUOBUSHU“SADE”YISHIZAIHEJUNBEILINGYUZUOWENZHANG。ZHONGGUOWANQUANYOUHEFAXINGYIDUIFANGPOHUAIZHANLVEHEPINGHENGJIWEIXIEZHONGGUOANQUANDEHELILIYOU,XIUGAICIQIANGUOYUPIANZHONGFANGYUXINGDEHEJUNBEIZHANLVE,TIGAOZISHENHEDAJINENGLI,JIANLIFANGFAN“SADE”XITONGDEDAODANFASHEJIDI。SHISHISHANG,ZHONGGUOHUOXUYIJINGKAISHIZHEIYIJINCHENG,DANRENGXUYAODUIWAIMINGSHI,JIANGZHEIYIXINGWEIJIQIHEFAXINGYU“SADE”BUSHUZHIJIEGUAGOU,YITIGAOZISHENHEWEISHE,HEZHANSHIZHONGGUOBAOHUZISHENANQUANLIYIDEJUEXIN。ZHEITONGSHIYESHITUPOLENGZHANHOUHEJUNBEILINGYUXUEJIANHEWUQIDEGUOJIGUIFANDUIZHONGGUODESHUFUDEYIGEJIYU。TEBIETELANGPUSHANGRENHOU,RUJINMEIELIANGGUODOUZAISHITUWEIZHEIYIGUOJIGUIFANSONGBANG,ZHONGGUOYINGDANGLIYONG“SADE”BUSHUGENJIN。WOMENKEYIHUIGU,DANGNIANMEIGUOTONGYANGYIYILANGHEWENTIWEIJIEKOUZAIBOLAN、JIEKEBUSHUZHENDUIEGUODEFANDAOHEJIANCEXITONG,ELUOSICAIQUDECELVESHIJIEJITIGAOLEZISHENHEDAJINENGLI,BINGMINGQUEXUANSHIZAIEOUBIANJINGBUSHUQIZUIXIANJINDEZHANSHUDAODANYISIKANDEER,ERBUSHIYINCIZHENDUIQIZHUNMENGGUOYILANG,YEMEIYOUYINCIYUDONGOUGUOJIAGUANXIJIAOE。ERZHENDUI“SADE”BUSHU,ELUOSIDEYINGDUIYESHILIYONGSHIJIZHONGQIYIERKUSIKEDONGFANGDAODANJIDI,BINGMINGSHIRUGUOTARIMEIECHONGTU,“SADE”XITONGJIANGCHENGWEIELUOSISHOUXIANDAJIHEQINGCHUDEMUBIAO。

2.以战略协调为主的中俄合作

侠客棋牌ZAIGELIYIYOUGUANFANGZHONG,ZHONGGUOYINGJIAQIANGYUELUOSIZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGDEXIEDIAOYUHEZUO。ELUOSISHIZHONGGUODEQUANQIUZHANLVEXIEZUOHUOBAN,TONGSHIYESHIDONGBEIYADEQUYUNEIGUOJIA,GENGSHICHAOBANDAOWENTIDEQIESHILIYIXIANGGUANFANG,BINGQIEDUICHAOXIANJUYOUYIDINGDEYINGXIANGLI。JIANYUCHAOXIANYUSUEZHIJIANDELISHILIANXIYUXIANSHIGUANXI,ELUOSISHIZUZHICHAOXIANDAOXIANGMEIGUOHEXIFANGDEJIJILILIANG。ZHONGGUOYIDUGUOYUZHONGSHIZHONGMEIZAICHAOBANDAODEHEZUO,XIANGDUIHUSHILEYUELUOSIDEZHANLVEXIEDIAOYUHEZUO,ZAIYUMEIGUOSHANGYIDUICHAOZHICAIXIEYISHI,WEIGUJIZHANLVEHUOBANDEXIANGGUANLIYI,ZHEIYESHISHICHAOBANDAOWENTICHUXIANJIANGJUDEYUANYINZHIYI。

侠客棋牌ZHONGELIANGGUODUICHAOBANDAOJUSHIHECHAOHEWENTIDEJIBENPANDUANCUNZAIYIDINGCHURU,DANZAICHAOBANDAODELIYIQUEYOUYOUHENDAZHONGHE。EFANGZAIPANDUANCHAOXIANQIHEHEMEIGUOFANGQIBUSHU“SADE”XITONGQUEFAXIANSHIKENENGXINGDEQINGKUANGXIA,SIHUGENGQINGXIANGYUMORENCHAOXIANYONGHEDEXIANSHINENGLI,BINGLALONGHEYAZHICHAOXIANBUDAOXIANGMEIGUO,YIJIYAOQUEBAOCHAOBANDAOBUZHAN、BULUAN、BUTONGDEDAJU。ELUOSIDUIMEIGUOZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGDEXINRENDIYUZHONGGUO,DUICHAOXIANQIHEDEKENENGXINGCHISHIFENBEIGUANDETAIDU,ERZHONGFANGCIQIANGENGDUOJIXIWANGMEIGUODAYINGHECHAOXIANQIANDINGSHUANGBIANHEPINGTIAOYUE,SHIXIANCHAOXIANQIHEHEMEIHANFANGQIBUSHUSADEDESHUANGZHONGMUBIAO。JINGUANCUNZAIDUIXIANSHIRENZHIDEFENQI,DANZHONGEZAICHAOBANDAODELIYIFANGXIANGJIBENYIZHI,ZHONGELIANGGUOZAICHAOBANDAODEGONGTONGLIYIYUANDUOYUZHONGMEIZHIJIAN。ZHONGGUOCIQIANZAICHULICHAOHEWENTISHANG,GUOYUKANZHONGMEIGUODEZUOYONG,QUEMINGXIANDIGULEELUOSIDUICHAOXIANDESHIJIYINGXIANGLI,HUSHILEELUOSIZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGKEYIBANYANDEXIEDIAOJIAOSE。

YOUYUDUICHAOBANDAODEJIBENXINGSHIPANDUANCUNZAIYIDINGQUBIE,YINCIYUZHONGGUOJIANGCHAOHEWENTIKANZUOMEICHAOZHIJIANDESHI,BINGTUIDONGMEICHAOZIJIQUTANPANDETAIDUBUTONG,ELUOSIDUICHAOXIANWENTIDEZHUYAOTAIDUSHI:CHAOXIANWENTIYINGYOUZHONGELIANGGUOCHULI。ESHANGYUANGUOFANGHEANQUANWEIYUANHUIZHUXIAOZELUOFUCENGBIAOSHI,“DUIYUMEIGUOBIAOSHIKENENGDUICHAODONGWUBIAOSHIYIHAN。ZHEIZAICISHUOMINGJIEJUECHAOXIANWENTIDEZHONGRENLUOZAIEZHONGLIANGGUOJIANSHANG。”ELUOSIZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGYOUYUZHONGGUOHEZUODEYIYUAN,YINCIGENGDUOKAOLVZHONGEZAICHAOHEWENTISHANGDEXIEDIAO,CIQIANYIZHIYUZHONGGUOMIANSHANGBAOCHIBIAOTAIYIZHI,JISHIBINGBUWANQUANRENTONGZHONGFANGDEPANDUANHEJIEJUESILU。ZAIZHONGGUOLIANGCIRAOKAIELUOSIYUMEIGUOSHUANGBIANYIDINGCHAOHEWENTI,BINGSHITUPEIHEMEIGUOZAICHAOBANDAODEZHANLVEKAOLVYAZHICHAOXIANZHIHOU,ELUOSIDUIZHONGGUODEZHANLVEXINRENXIAJIANG,ZHONGEXUYAOJIAQIANGZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGDEGOUTONGYUXIEDIAO,GONGGUSHUANGFANGDEZHANLVEXINRENGUANXI。

侠客棋牌ZHONGGUOKEYIKAOLVZAIXIANYOULIUFANGHUITANDEKUANGJIAXIAJIANLIBINGQIANGHUAZHONGECHAODESANBIANDUIHUAJIZHI。LIUFANGHUITANYISHISHISHANGXIANRUJIANGJU,MEICHAOJUJUEZHEIYIXINGSHIHEPINGTAI,HANGUOGENGRENWEILIUFANGHUITANDANGNIANSHIZHONGGUOZAIBANGZHUCHAOXIANTUOZHUHEQIPIANMEIHAN,DUICIYOUDICHUQINGXU,XIANGBIZHONGECHAOSANBIANDUIHUAJIZHIGENGNENGFAHUISHIJIZUOYONG,ERQIENENGGOUCHONGFENTIXIANZHONGGUOJIANCHICHAOBANDAOWENTIHEPINGSHOUDUANZHENGZHIXIESHANGJIEJUEDELICHANG,ZHONGEDUIDENGGUANXIYEYOUZHUYUZHONGGUOZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGHUIFUHUAYUQUAN。

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ZUIHOU,CHAOBANDAOWENTISHIZHONGGUOJUEQIDEYIKUAIZHONGYAOSHIJINSHI。YUTAIHAI、NANHAIHEDONGHAIZHEISANDAYINGXIANGZHONGGUOJUEQIJINCHENGDEWENTIXIANGBI,CHAOBANDAOTEBIESHICHAOHEWENTISHIZHONGGUOZHOUBIANNANTIZHONGMUQIANZUIJISHOUHEZUIRONGYISHIKONGDEFANGXIANG;CHULIDEDANG,YOUZHUYUTIGAOZHONGGUOZAIZHOUBIANDEWEIXINHEHUAYUQUAN,CHULIBUDANG,ZEKENENGDAOXIANGZAINANDEJIEGUO,DAPOZHONGGUOJUEQIJINCHENG。ZHONGGUOZAICHAOBANDAOWENTISHANGXUYAOZHANLVEJUEXIN、DINGLIHECHUANGXINSIWEI。

侠客棋牌                                 (ZUOZHEDANWEI:ZHONGGUOSHEHUIKEXUEYUANYATAIYUQUANQIUZHANLVEYANJIUYUAN)